La Bañeza 5–0 Salamanca II: Result & Stats

La Bañeza

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Salamanca II

Lauren Egea 90+3' (OG)

Hugo Murciego 90'

Diego Franco 74'

Samuel Mayo 45+3'

Álvaro de Lera 3'

12/13/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 9Estadio La Llanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Bañeza35%

×Draw27%

Salamanca II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La BañezaExpected goals in this matchSalamanca II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.25

La Bañeza

1.19

Salamanca II

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 61 away

1.03

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

La Bañeza

1.03

Salamanca II

1.00

allows per match

La Bañeza

1.50

Salamanca II

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Bañeza+0.00on par

Salamanca II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Bañeza ↓

Salamanca II →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

La Bañeza or draw

62%

La Bañeza or Salamanca II

73%

Draw or Salamanca II

65%

Winning margin

La Bañeza wins by 2+

15%

Salamanca II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

La Bañeza 1+ goals

70%

La Bañeza 2+ goals

33%

La Bañeza 3+ goals

12%

Salamanca II 1+ goals

71%

Salamanca II 2+ goals

36%

Salamanca II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

La Bañeza (draw refunded)

48%

Salamanca II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Bañeza at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Salamanca II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Bañeza attack 1.03 + Salamanca II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Salamanca II attack 1.00 + La Bañeza defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

La Bañeza scores more

35%

level

27%

Salamanca II scores more

38%

Salamanca II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Salamanca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Álvaro de Lera

22'

Jorge Prieto← Lorento

45+3'

Samuel Mayo

46'

Oumar← Daniel Guerrero

46'

Samuel Grilli← Ibra

46'

Antonio Alemán← N. López

46'

D. Villa← Kever

57'

M. Del Olmo← Jorge Pedra

67'

Aitor García← Pablo Martínez

67'

Yordan← Álvaro de Lera

74'

Diego Franco

76'

Juan del Pino← Oscar Zabalo

76'

Hugo Murciego← Jorge Suárez

90'

Hugo Murciego

90+3'

Lauren EgeaOwn goal

Salamanca

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Lera

▼

Martínez

▼

Suárez

Manager: Carlos Delgado

22'▲Jorge Prieto←▼Lorento

67'▲Aitor García←▼Pablo Martínez

67'▲Yordan←▼Álvaro de Lera

76'▲Juan del Pino←▼Oscar Zabalo

76'▲Hugo Murciego←▼Jorge Suárez

La Bañeza substitutes

PrietoGarcíaYordanPinoMurciego

Manager: Javi Guillén

46'▲Oumar←▼Daniel Guerrero

46'▲Samuel Grilli←▼Ibra

46'▲Antonio Alemán←▼N. López

46'▲D. Villa←▼Kever

57'▲M. Del Olmo←▼Jorge Pedra

Salamanca II substitutes

OumarGrilliAlemánVillaOlmo