La Bañeza 4–1 Real Burgos: Result & Stats

La Bañeza

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Real Burgos

Aitor García 55'

Hugo Murciego 46'

Samuel Mayo 16'

Álvaro de Lera 5'

J. Tovar 57'

4/18/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio La Llanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Bañeza42%

×Draw26%

Real Burgos32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La BañezaExpected goals in this matchReal Burgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.25

La Bañeza

1.46

Real Burgos

1.25

La Bañeza creates 17% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.03

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

La Bañeza

1.03

Real Burgos

1.00

allows per match

La Bañeza

1.50

Real Burgos

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Bañeza+0.00on par

Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Bañeza ↓

Real Burgos →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

La Bañeza or draw

68%

La Bañeza or Real Burgos

74%

Draw or Real Burgos

58%

Winning margin

La Bañeza wins by 2+

20%

Real Burgos wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

La Bañeza 1+ goals

77%

La Bañeza 2+ goals

43%

La Bañeza 3+ goals

18%

Real Burgos 1+ goals

71%

Real Burgos 2+ goals

36%

Real Burgos 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

La Bañeza (draw refunded)

56%

Real Burgos (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Bañeza at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Bañeza attack 1.03 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.46

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + La Bañeza defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

La Bañeza scores more

42%

level

26%

Real Burgos scores more

32%

La Bañeza at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "La Bañeza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

46'

55'

57'

58'

Adrián Rojo← Aitor García

58'

Lorento← Diego Franco

58'

Jorge Suárez← Álvaro de Lera

58'

Pedro Dango← J. Tovar

63'

David Fernández← Dani

72'

Mateo← Samuel Mayo

76'

Carlos Izquierdo← M. Moreno

77'

Juan del Pino← Pablo González

Real

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

García

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Lera

Manager: Carlos Delgado

58'▲Adrián Rojo←▼Aitor García

58'▲Lorento←▼Diego Franco

58'▲Jorge Suárez←▼Álvaro de Lera

72'▲Mateo←▼Samuel Mayo

77'▲Juan del Pino←▼Pablo González

La Bañeza substitutes

RojoLorentoSuárezMateoPino

Manager: Marcos López

58'▲Pedro Dango←▼J. Tovar

63'▲David Fernández←▼Dani

76'▲Carlos Izquierdo←▼M. Moreno

Real Burgos substitutes

DangoFernándezIzquierdo

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: La Bañeza 4–1 Real Burgos

La Bañeza beat Real Burgos 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 18, 2021.

Goals: Álvaro de Lera (5'), Samuel Mayo (16'), Hugo Murciego (46'), Aitor García (55'), J. Tovar (57').

The match was played at Estadio La Llanera in La Bañeza.

La Bañeza vs Real Burgos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: La Bañeza 4–1 Real Burgos