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La Bañeza vs Numancia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Bañeza
La Bañeza
CANC
00:00
Numancia II
Numancia II
4/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 35Estadio La Llanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Bañeza39%
×Draw27%
Numancia II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Bañeza
1.31
Numancia II
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 76 away

creates per match

La Bañeza
1.03
Numancia II
0.95

allows per match

La Bañeza
1.50
Numancia II
1.58

finishing

La Bañeza+0.00on par
Numancia II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Bañeza ↓

Numancia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

La Bañeza or draw
65%
La Bañeza or Numancia II
73%
Draw or Numancia II
61%

Winning margin

La Bañeza wins by 2+
17%
Numancia II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

La Bañeza 1+ goals
73%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
38%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
14%
Numancia II 1+ goals
71%
Numancia II 2+ goals
35%
Numancia II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

La Bañeza (draw refunded)
53%
Numancia II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Bañeza at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Numancia II away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Bañeza attack 1.03 + Numancia II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Numancia II attack 0.95 + La Bañeza defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

La Bañeza scores more
39%
level
27%
Numancia II scores more
35%

La Bañeza at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "La Bañeza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

La Bañeza vs Numancia II — Match Preview

La Bañeza face Numancia II on April 1, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

La Bañeza host Numancia II at Estadio La Llanera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.