La Bañeza 0–1 Bupolsa: Result & Stats

La Bañeza

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bupolsa

Jorge Sáiz 33'

4/4/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio La Llanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Bañeza37%

×Draw28%

Bupolsa35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La BañezaExpected goals in this matchBupolsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.16

La Bañeza

1.19

Bupolsa

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

1.03

creates per match

0.81

1.50

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

La Bañeza

1.03

Bupolsa

0.81

allows per match

La Bañeza

1.50

Bupolsa

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Bañeza+0.00on par

Bupolsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Bañeza ↓

Bupolsa →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

La Bañeza or draw

65%

La Bañeza or Bupolsa

72%

Draw or Bupolsa

63%

Winning margin

La Bañeza wins by 2+

16%

Bupolsa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

La Bañeza 1+ goals

70%

La Bañeza 2+ goals

33%

La Bañeza 3+ goals

12%

Bupolsa 1+ goals

69%

Bupolsa 2+ goals

32%

Bupolsa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

La Bañeza (draw refunded)

51%

Bupolsa (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Bañeza at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Bupolsa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Bañeza attack 1.03 + Bupolsa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Bupolsa attack 0.81 + La Bañeza defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

La Bañeza scores more

37%

level

28%

Bupolsa scores more

35%

La Bañeza at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "La Bañeza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Rubén Burón← Álvaro de Lera

33'

Jorge Sáiz

49'

Enrique Cerezo← Jorge Sáiz

65'

R. Cadaveira← Alberto Baztán

66'

Adrián Rojo← Aitor García

66'

Yordan← Jorge Suárez

80'

Javi Cerro← Adri

80'

Revi← A. Sidibé

89'

Eriz García← Erik Del Río

89'

Diego Franco← Hugo Murciego

89'

Bupolsa

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Carlos Delgado

28'▲Rubén Burón←▼Álvaro de Lera

66'▲Adrián Rojo←▼Aitor García

66'▲Yordan←▼Jorge Suárez

89'▲Eriz García←▼Erik Del Río

89'▲Diego Franco←▼Hugo Murciego

La Bañeza substitutes

BurónRojoYordanGarcíaFranco

Manager: Santiago Sedano

49'▲Enrique Cerezo←▼Jorge Sáiz

65'▲R. Cadaveira←▼Alberto Baztán

80'▲Javi Cerro←▼Adri

80'▲Revi←▼A. Sidibé

89'▲O. Coulibaly←▼Tomás

Bupolsa substitutes

CerezoCadaveiraCerroReviCoulibaly

Match Recap: La Bañeza vs Bupolsa

Bupolsa beat La Bañeza 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 4, 2021.

Goals: Jorge Sáiz (33').

The match was played at Estadio La Llanera in La Bañeza.

La Bañeza vs Bupolsa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: La Bañeza vs Bupolsa