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La Bañeza vs Atlético Astorga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Bañeza
La Bañeza
CANC
00:00
Atlético Astorga
Atlético Astorga
3/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 33Estadio La Llanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Bañeza26%
×Draw27%
Atlético Astorga47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Bañeza
0.96
Atlético Astorga
1.39

Atlético Astorga creates 45% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 93 away

creates per match

La Bañeza
1.03
Atlético Astorga
1.27

allows per match

La Bañeza
1.50
Atlético Astorga
0.89

finishing

La Bañeza+0.00on par
Atlético Astorga+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Bañeza ↓

Atlético Astorga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

La Bañeza or draw
53%
La Bañeza or Atlético Astorga
73%
Draw or Atlético Astorga
74%

Winning margin

La Bañeza wins by 2+
9%
Atlético Astorga wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

La Bañeza 1+ goals
62%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
25%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
7%
Atlético Astorga 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Astorga 2+ goals
40%
Atlético Astorga 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

La Bañeza (draw refunded)
36%
Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Bañeza at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Atlético Astorga away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Bañeza attack 1.03 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Atlético Astorga attack 1.27 + La Bañeza defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

La Bañeza scores more
26%
level
27%
Atlético Astorga scores more
47%

Atlético Astorga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: La Bañeza host Atlético Astorga

March 25, 2020: La Bañeza take on Atlético Astorga in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

La Bañeza host Atlético Astorga at Estadio La Llanera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.