La Almunia 3–0 Fraga: Result & Stats

La Almunia

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Fraga

4/6/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 29Campo de Fútbol Municipal Tenerías

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

La Almunia37%

×Draw25%

Fraga38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La AlmuniaExpected goals in this matchFraga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.40

La Almunia

1.38

Fraga

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 65 away

1.27

creates per match

1.06

1.73

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

La Almunia

1.27

Fraga

1.06

allows per match

La Almunia

1.73

Fraga

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Almunia+0.00on par

Fraga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Almunia ↓

Fraga →

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

La Almunia or draw

62%

La Almunia or Fraga

75%

Draw or Fraga

63%

Winning margin

La Almunia wins by 2+

17%

Fraga wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

La Almunia 1+ goals

75%

La Almunia 2+ goals

40%

La Almunia 3+ goals

16%

Fraga 1+ goals

75%

Fraga 2+ goals

41%

Fraga 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

La Almunia (draw refunded)

49%

Fraga (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Almunia at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 49 matches

Fraga away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Almunia attack 1.27 + Fraga defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Fraga attack 1.06 + La Almunia defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

La Almunia scores more

37%

level

25%

Fraga scores more

38%

Fraga at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fraga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff