La Almunia vs Caspe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 49+ matches
La Almunia34%
Caspe39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Caspe creates 10% more chances
Season form · 49 home / 83 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
La Almunia ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
La Almunia at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 49 matches
Caspe away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.10 · 83 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
La Almunia attack 1.27 + Caspe defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19
Caspe attack 0.89 + La Almunia defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.31
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Caspe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Caspe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Atlético Monzón
Cuarte
Calamocha
ÉpilaCaspe
Huesca II
BinéfarLa Almunia
Almudévar
CDJ Tamarite
Andorra CF
Illueca
Robres
Belchite 97
Cariñena
UD Casetas
Utrillas
ZueraIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
La Almunia host Caspe on Sunday, 23 March 2025 at 15:30. The match is part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019/2020 season.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: La Almunia 0–1 Caspe
Caspe beat La Almunia 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on March 23, 2025.
The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal Tenerías in La Almunia de Doña Godina.