Lørenskog 3–0 Ullensaker / Kisa II: Result & Stats

Lørenskog

FT

3 – 0

Ullensaker / Kisa II

9/23/2021

3. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 2Strømmen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lørenskog68%

×Draw20%

Ullensaker / Kisa II12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LørenskogExpected goals in this matchUllensaker / Kisa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.73

Lørenskog

2.06

Ullensaker / Kisa II

0.73

Lørenskog creates 182% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.29

creates per match

0.33

1.14

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Lørenskog

1.29

Ullensaker / Kisa II

0.33

allows per match

Lørenskog

1.14

Ullensaker / Kisa II

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lørenskog+0.00on par

Ullensaker / Kisa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lørenskog ↓

Ullensaker / Kisa II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lørenskog or draw

88%

Lørenskog or Ullensaker / Kisa II

80%

Draw or Ullensaker / Kisa II

32%

Winning margin

Lørenskog wins by 2+

43%

Ullensaker / Kisa II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Lørenskog 1+ goals

87%

Lørenskog 2+ goals

61%

Lørenskog 3+ goals

34%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 1+ goals

52%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 2+ goals

17%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Lørenskog (draw refunded)

85%

Ullensaker / Kisa II (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lørenskog at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Ullensaker / Kisa II away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lørenskog attack 1.29 + Ullensaker / Kisa II defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.06

Ullensaker / Kisa II attack 0.33 + Lørenskog defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Lørenskog scores more

68%

level

20%

Ullensaker / Kisa II scores more

12%

Lørenskog at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Lørenskog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff