Lørenskog 1–2 Raufoss II: Result & Stats

Lørenskog

FT

1 – 2

Raufoss II

10/9/2021

3. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 10Strømmen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lørenskog56%

×Draw22%

Raufoss II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LørenskogExpected goals in this matchRaufoss II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.14

Lørenskog

1.93

Raufoss II

1.14

Lørenskog creates 69% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.29

creates per match

1.14

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Lørenskog

1.29

Raufoss II

1.14

allows per match

Lørenskog

1.14

Raufoss II

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lørenskog+0.00on par

Raufoss II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lørenskog ↓

Raufoss II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Lørenskog or draw

78%

Lørenskog or Raufoss II

78%

Draw or Raufoss II

44%

Winning margin

Lørenskog wins by 2+

32%

Raufoss II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lørenskog 1+ goals

85%

Lørenskog 2+ goals

57%

Lørenskog 3+ goals

30%

Raufoss II 1+ goals

68%

Raufoss II 2+ goals

32%

Raufoss II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lørenskog (draw refunded)

71%

Raufoss II (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lørenskog at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Raufoss II away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lørenskog attack 1.29 + Raufoss II defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.93

Raufoss II attack 1.14 + Lørenskog defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lørenskog scores more

56%

level

22%

Raufoss II scores more

22%

Lørenskog at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lørenskog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff