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Lørenskog vs Kristiansund II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Lørenskog
Lørenskog
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Kristiansund II
Kristiansund II
8/10/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 16Strømmen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lørenskog55%
×Draw20%
Kristiansund II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lørenskog
2.25
Kristiansund II
1.46

Lørenskog creates 54% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Lørenskog
2.15
Kristiansund II
1.38

allows per match

Lørenskog
1.54
Kristiansund II
2.35

finishing

Lørenskog+0.00on par
Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lørenskog ↓

Kristiansund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lørenskog or draw
75%
Lørenskog or Kristiansund II
80%
Draw or Kristiansund II
45%

Winning margin

Lørenskog wins by 2+
34%
Kristiansund II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lørenskog 1+ goals
89%
Lørenskog 2+ goals
65%
Lørenskog 3+ goals
39%
Kristiansund II 1+ goals
77%
Kristiansund II 2+ goals
43%
Kristiansund II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lørenskog (draw refunded)
69%
Kristiansund II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lørenskog at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lørenskog attack 2.15 + Kristiansund II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.25

Kristiansund II attack 1.38 + Lørenskog defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lørenskog scores more
55%
level
20%
Kristiansund II scores more
25%

Lørenskog at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lørenskog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Lørenskog 4–2 Kristiansund II

Lørenskog beat Kristiansund II 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Strømmen Stadion in Strømmen.