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Lørenskog vs Funnefoss / Vormsund — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Lørenskog
Lørenskog
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
S. Sandberg 76'
V. Fajfric 38', 23'
S. Latkovic 16'
H. H. Fosvold 71'
T. S. Karlsen 3'
8/24/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 18Strømmen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lørenskog60%
×Draw19%
Funnefoss / Vormsund21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lørenskog
2.38
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.34

Lørenskog creates 78% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lørenskog
2.15
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.15

allows per match

Lørenskog
1.54
Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.62

finishing

Lørenskog+0.00on par
Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lørenskog ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lørenskog or draw
79%
Lørenskog or Funnefoss / Vormsund
81%
Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund
40%

Winning margin

Lørenskog wins by 2+
38%
Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lørenskog 1+ goals
91%
Lørenskog 2+ goals
68%
Lørenskog 3+ goals
42%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
74%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
39%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lørenskog (draw refunded)
74%
Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lørenskog at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lørenskog attack 2.15 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.38

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.15 + Lørenskog defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lørenskog scores more
60%
level
19%
Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
21%

Lørenskog at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lørenskog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
T. S. Karlsen
16'
S. Latkovic
23'
V. Fajfric
38'
V. Fajfric
71'
H. H. Fosvold
76'
S. Sandberg

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lørenskog vs Funnefoss / Vormsund

Lørenskog beat Funnefoss / Vormsund 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on August 24, 2024.

Goals: T. S. Karlsen (3'), S. Latkovic (16'), V. Fajfric (23', 38'), H. H. Fosvold (71'), S. Sandberg (76').

The match was played at Strømmen Stadion in Strømmen.