L'Hospitalet 3–1 Vilafranca: Result & Stats

L'Hospitalet

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Vilafranca

Óscar Gómez 74'

Albert Lopez 22'

Lobato 17'

Genís Cargol 64'

12/17/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 14Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

L'Hospitalet53%

×Draw25%

Vilafranca22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

L'HospitaletExpected goals in this matchVilafranca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.96

L'Hospitalet

1.65

Vilafranca

0.96

L'Hospitalet creates 72% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 74 away

1.71

creates per match

1.12

0.80

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

L'Hospitalet

1.71

Vilafranca

1.12

allows per match

L'Hospitalet

0.80

Vilafranca

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Hospitalet ↓

Vilafranca →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

L'Hospitalet or draw

78%

L'Hospitalet or Vilafranca

75%

Draw or Vilafranca

47%

Winning margin

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+

29%

Vilafranca wins by 2+

Team goals

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals

81%

L'Hospitalet 2+ goals

49%

L'Hospitalet 3+ goals

23%

Vilafranca 1+ goals

62%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

25%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)

71%

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

L'Hospitalet at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.80 · 97 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

L'Hospitalet attack 1.71 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + L'Hospitalet defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

L'Hospitalet scores more

53%

level

25%

Vilafranca scores more

22%

L'Hospitalet at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Lobato

22'

Albert Lopez

46'

Isaac Olmo← Xavier Pluvins

55'

Canario← Ton Alcover

55'

Dani Rubio← Marti de Castro

55'

Arnau Cañas← Pedro Bilbao

62'

Óscar Gómez← Albert Lopez

62'

Sergi Cadena← David Toro

64'

Genís Cargol

70'

Adrián Toro← Xavier Pujó

74'

Óscar Gómez

79'

Jaume← Lobato

L'Hospitalet

Vilafranca

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Lopez

Sarr

Martínez

Manager: Joan Sánchez

55'▲Canario←▼Ton Alcover

62'▲Óscar Gómez←▼Albert Lopez

79'▲Jaume←▼Lobato

L'Hospitalet substitutes

CanarioGómezJaume

Manager: Triguero

46'▲Isaac Olmo←▼Xavier Pluvins

55'▲Dani Rubio←▼Marti de Castro

55'▲Arnau Cañas←▼Pedro Bilbao

62'▲Sergi Cadena←▼David Toro

70'▲Adrián Toro←▼Xavier Pujó

Vilafranca substitutes

OlmoRubioCañasCadenaToro

Match Recap: L'Hospitalet vs Vilafranca

L'Hospitalet beat Vilafranca 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 17, 2023.

Goals: Lobato (17'), Albert Lopez (22'), Genís Cargol (64'), Óscar Gómez (74').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat in L'Hospitalet de Llobregat.

L'Hospitalet vs Vilafranca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: L'Hospitalet vs Vilafranca