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L'Hospitalet vs Terrassa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

L'Hospitalet
L'Hospitalet
CANC
10:00
Terrassa
Terrassa
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 37Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

L'Hospitalet41%
×Draw28%
Terrassa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

L'Hospitalet
1.28
Terrassa
1.08

L'Hospitalet creates 19% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 28 away

creates per match

L'Hospitalet
1.71
Terrassa
1.36

allows per match

L'Hospitalet
0.80
Terrassa
0.86

finishing

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par
Terrassa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Hospitalet ↓

Terrassa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

L'Hospitalet or draw
69%
L'Hospitalet or Terrassa
72%
Draw or Terrassa
59%

Winning margin

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+
18%
Terrassa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals
72%
L'Hospitalet 2+ goals
37%
L'Hospitalet 3+ goals
14%
Terrassa 1+ goals
66%
Terrassa 2+ goals
29%
Terrassa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)
57%
Terrassa (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Hospitalet at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.80 · 97 matches

Terrassa away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Hospitalet attack 1.71 + Terrassa defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.28

Terrassa attack 1.36 + L'Hospitalet defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

L'Hospitalet scores more
41%
level
28%
Terrassa scores more
31%

L'Hospitalet at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

L'Hospitalet face Terrassa (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 returns with L'Hospitalet hosting Terrassa. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

L'Hospitalet host Terrassa at Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.