L'Hospitalet 2–0 San Cristóbal: Result & Stats

L'Hospitalet

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

San Cristóbal

Ton Alcover 59'

Óscar Gómez 26'

2/4/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 19Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

L'Hospitalet52%

×Draw27%

San Cristóbal21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

L'HospitaletExpected goals in this matchSan Cristóbal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.79

L'Hospitalet

1.43

San Cristóbal

0.79

L'Hospitalet creates 81% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 108 away

1.71

creates per match

0.78

0.80

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

L'Hospitalet

1.71

San Cristóbal

0.78

allows per match

L'Hospitalet

0.80

San Cristóbal

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par

San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Hospitalet ↓

San Cristóbal →

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

L'Hospitalet or draw

79%

L'Hospitalet or San Cristóbal

73%

Draw or San Cristóbal

48%

Winning margin

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+

26%

San Cristóbal wins by 2+

Team goals

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals

76%

L'Hospitalet 2+ goals

42%

L'Hospitalet 3+ goals

17%

San Cristóbal 1+ goals

55%

San Cristóbal 2+ goals

19%

San Cristóbal 3+ goals

Draw no bet

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)

72%

San Cristóbal (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

L'Hospitalet at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.80 · 97 matches

San Cristóbal away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.15 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

L'Hospitalet attack 1.71 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.43

San Cristóbal attack 0.78 + L'Hospitalet defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

L'Hospitalet scores more

52%

level

27%

San Cristóbal scores more

21%

L'Hospitalet at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Óscar Gómez

46'

M. Jabbie← Raul Martínez

46'

Escamilla← Miguel Martínez

46'

Max Llovera← João Vianna

46'

He Xiaoke← Alex Otero

59'

Sehou Sarr← Ander Montori

59'

Sanku← Óscar Gómez

59'

Ton Alcover

65'

F. Piovaccari← Iván Cabellud

67'

Lobato← Canario

80'

Jaume← Ton Alcover

L'Hospitalet

San

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Gómez

▼

Martínez

Manager: Joan Sánchez

46'▲M. Jabbie←▼Raul Martínez

59'▲Sehou Sarr←▼Ander Montori

59'▲Sanku←▼Óscar Gómez

67'▲Lobato←▼Canario

80'▲Jaume←▼Ton Alcover

L'Hospitalet substitutes

JabbieSarrSankuLobatoJaume

Manager: Cristian

46'▲Escamilla←▼Miguel Martínez

46'▲Max Llovera←▼João Vianna

46'▲He Xiaoke←▼Alex Otero

65'▲F. Piovaccari←▼Iván Cabellud

San Cristóbal substitutes

EscamillaLloveraXiaokePiovaccari

Match Recap: L'Hospitalet vs San Cristóbal

L'Hospitalet beat San Cristóbal 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 4, 2024.

Goals: Óscar Gómez (26'), Ton Alcover (59').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat in L'Hospitalet de Llobregat.

L'Hospitalet vs San Cristóbal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: L'Hospitalet vs San Cristóbal