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L'Hospitalet vs Reus — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

L'Hospitalet
L'Hospitalet
FT
3 – 0
Reus
Reus
10/13/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 8Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

L'Hospitalet81%
×Draw14%
Reus5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

L'Hospitalet
2.35
Reus
0.40

L'Hospitalet creates 488% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 18 away

creates per match

L'Hospitalet
1.71
Reus
0.00

allows per match

L'Hospitalet
0.80
Reus
3.00

finishing

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par
Reus+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Hospitalet ↓

Reus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

L'Hospitalet or draw
95%
L'Hospitalet or Reus
86%
Draw or Reus
19%

Winning margin

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+
58%
Reus wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals
90%
L'Hospitalet 2+ goals
68%
L'Hospitalet 3+ goals
41%
Reus 1+ goals
33%
Reus 2+ goals
6%
Reus 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)
94%
Reus (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Hospitalet at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.80 · 97 matches

Reus away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Hospitalet attack 1.71 + Reus defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Reus attack 0.00 + L'Hospitalet defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

L'Hospitalet scores more
81%
level
14%
Reus scores more
5%

L'Hospitalet at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: L'Hospitalet vs Reus

L'Hospitalet beat Reus 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat in L'Hospitalet de Llobregat.