L'Hospitalet 1–0 Pobla Mafumet: Result & Stats

L'Hospitalet

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pobla Mafumet

1/22/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 18Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

L'Hospitalet51%

×Draw26%

Pobla Mafumet23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

L'HospitaletExpected goals in this matchPobla Mafumet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.94

L'Hospitalet

1.52

Pobla Mafumet

0.94

L'Hospitalet creates 62% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 76 away

1.71

creates per match

1.07

0.80

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

L'Hospitalet

1.71

Pobla Mafumet

1.07

allows per match

L'Hospitalet

0.80

Pobla Mafumet

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Hospitalet ↓

Pobla Mafumet →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

L'Hospitalet or draw

77%

L'Hospitalet or Pobla Mafumet

74%

Draw or Pobla Mafumet

49%

Winning margin

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+

26%

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

Team goals

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals

78%

L'Hospitalet 2+ goals

45%

L'Hospitalet 3+ goals

20%

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

61%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

24%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

Draw no bet

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)

68%

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

L'Hospitalet at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.80 · 97 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

L'Hospitalet attack 1.71 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.52

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + L'Hospitalet defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

L'Hospitalet scores more

51%

level

26%

Pobla Mafumet scores more

23%

L'Hospitalet at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: L'Hospitalet vs Pobla Mafumet

L'Hospitalet beat Pobla Mafumet 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat in L'Hospitalet de Llobregat.

L'Hospitalet vs Pobla Mafumet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: L'Hospitalet vs Pobla Mafumet