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L'Hospitalet vs L'Escala — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

L'Hospitalet
L'Hospitalet
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
L'Escala
L'Escala
Sanku Jabbie 90+3'
Mamau 6'
Marc Padilla 75'
2/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 23Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

L'Hospitalet57%
×Draw24%
L'Escala19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

L'Hospitalet
1.70
L'Escala
0.88

L'Hospitalet creates 93% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 51 away

creates per match

L'Hospitalet
1.71
L'Escala
0.96

allows per match

L'Hospitalet
0.80
L'Escala
1.69

finishing

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par
L'Escala+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Hospitalet ↓

L'Escala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

L'Hospitalet or draw
81%
L'Hospitalet or L'Escala
76%
Draw or L'Escala
43%

Winning margin

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+
31%
L'Escala wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals
82%
L'Hospitalet 2+ goals
51%
L'Hospitalet 3+ goals
24%
L'Escala 1+ goals
59%
L'Escala 2+ goals
22%
L'Escala 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)
75%
L'Escala (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Hospitalet at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.80 · 97 matches

L'Escala away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Hospitalet attack 1.71 + L'Escala defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.70

L'Escala attack 0.96 + L'Hospitalet defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

L'Hospitalet scores more
57%
level
24%
L'Escala scores more
19%

L'Hospitalet at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Mamau
60'
Aaron Jaye← Nil Valero
60'
Rubi← Ton Alcover
60'
Marc Padilla← B. Charreh
60'
Marco Gil← Biel Borra
60'
Marc Gelmà← Pouget
69'
Lluis Estebe← Adán Jesús
75'
Marc Padilla
78'
Osuman Mballow← H. Davis
78'
Marc Pouget← Martin Alonso
89'
Josep Serrano← Adri Díaz
90+3'
Sanku Jabbie
L'Hospitalet
L'Escala
Jonatan Morilla
Morilla
Juanca Oliver
Oliver
Ferran López
López
Biel Borra
▼
Borra
H. Davis
▼
Davis
Josu Currais
Currais
Pouget
▼
Pouget
Manel Montoya
Montoya
Adriá Méndez
Méndez
B. Charreh
▼
Charreh
Martin Alonso
▼
Alonso
Adriá Aliaga
Aliaga
Ramon Marimon
Marimon
V. Pentelei
Pentelei
Lucas Pariente
Pariente
Ton Alcover
▼
Alcover
Adri Díaz
▼
Díaz
J. Carreón
Carreón
Mamau
⚽
Mamau
Nil Valero
▼
Valero
Adán Jesús
▼
Jesús
Sanku Jabbie
⚽
Jabbie
Jaume Delgado
Manager: Jaume Delgado
60'▲Aaron Jaye←▼Nil Valero
60'▲Rubi←▼Ton Alcover
69'▲Lluis Estebe←▼Adán Jesús
89'▲Josep Serrano←▼Adri Díaz

L'Hospitalet substitutes

JayeRubiEstebeSerrano
Raul Paje
Manager: Raul Paje
60'▲Marc Padilla←▼B. Charreh
60'▲Marco Gil←▼Biel Borra
60'▲Marc Gelmà←▼Pouget
78'▲Osuman Mballow←▼H. Davis
78'▲Marc Pouget←▼Martin Alonso

L'Escala substitutes

PadillaGilGelmàMballowPouget

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: L'Hospitalet 2–1 L'Escala

L'Hospitalet beat L'Escala 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 23, 2025.

Goals: Mamau (6'), Marc Padilla (75'), Sanku Jabbie (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat in L'Hospitalet de Llobregat.