L'Hospitalet 3–4 Igualada: Result & Stats

L'Hospitalet

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Igualada

10/27/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 10Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

L'Hospitalet61%

×Draw22%

Igualada17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

L'HospitaletExpected goals in this matchIgualada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.86

L'Hospitalet

1.85

Igualada

0.86

L'Hospitalet creates 115% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 28 away

1.71

creates per match

0.93

0.80

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

L'Hospitalet

1.71

Igualada

0.93

allows per match

L'Hospitalet

0.80

Igualada

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par

Igualada+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Hospitalet ↓

Igualada →

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

L'Hospitalet or draw

83%

L'Hospitalet or Igualada

78%

Draw or Igualada

39%

Winning margin

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+

35%

Igualada wins by 2+

Team goals

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals

84%

L'Hospitalet 2+ goals

55%

L'Hospitalet 3+ goals

28%

Igualada 1+ goals

58%

Igualada 2+ goals

21%

Igualada 3+ goals

Draw no bet

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)

78%

Igualada (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

L'Hospitalet at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.80 · 97 matches

Igualada away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

L'Hospitalet attack 1.71 + Igualada defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Igualada attack 0.93 + L'Hospitalet defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

L'Hospitalet scores more

61%

level

22%

Igualada scores more

17%

L'Hospitalet at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff