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L'Hospitalet vs Girona II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

L'Hospitalet
L'Hospitalet
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Girona II
Girona II
9/5/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 1Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

L'Hospitalet43%
×Draw28%
Girona II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

L'Hospitalet
1.31
Girona II
1.02

L'Hospitalet creates 28% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 78 away

creates per match

L'Hospitalet
1.71
Girona II
1.23

allows per match

L'Hospitalet
0.80
Girona II
0.91

finishing

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par
Girona II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Hospitalet ↓

Girona II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

L'Hospitalet or draw
71%
L'Hospitalet or Girona II
72%
Draw or Girona II
57%

Winning margin

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+
20%
Girona II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals
73%
L'Hospitalet 2+ goals
38%
L'Hospitalet 3+ goals
14%
Girona II 1+ goals
64%
Girona II 2+ goals
27%
Girona II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)
60%
Girona II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Hospitalet at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.80 · 97 matches

Girona II away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Hospitalet attack 1.71 + Girona II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.31

Girona II attack 1.23 + L'Hospitalet defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

L'Hospitalet scores more
43%
level
28%
Girona II scores more
29%

L'Hospitalet at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: L'Hospitalet vs Girona II

Girona II beat L'Hospitalet 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat in L'Hospitalet de Llobregat.