Girona II 0–0 L'Hospitalet: Result & Stats

Girona II

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

L'Hospitalet

5/4/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 33Campo Municipal Riudarenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Girona II41%

×Draw25%

L'Hospitalet33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Girona IIExpected goals in this matchL'Hospitalet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.32

Girona II

1.50

L'Hospitalet

1.32

Girona II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 95 away

1.72

creates per match

1.51

1.13

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Girona II

1.72

L'Hospitalet

1.51

allows per match

Girona II

1.13

L'Hospitalet

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Girona II+0.00on par

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Girona II ↓

L'Hospitalet →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Girona II or draw

67%

Girona II or L'Hospitalet

75%

Draw or L'Hospitalet

59%

Winning margin

Girona II wins by 2+

20%

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Girona II 1+ goals

78%

Girona II 2+ goals

44%

Girona II 3+ goals

19%

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals

73%

L'Hospitalet 2+ goals

38%

L'Hospitalet 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Girona II (draw refunded)

55%

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Girona II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

L'Hospitalet away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.27 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Girona II attack 1.72 + L'Hospitalet defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

L'Hospitalet attack 1.51 + Girona II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Girona II scores more

41%

level

25%

L'Hospitalet scores more

33%

Girona II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

S. One← Lluis Estebe

59'

Carles Garrido← Jastin García

59'

Miguel Sánchez← D. Camara

70'

Sehou Sarr← Álvaro Rivero

70'

Adán Jesús← Pol Ballesteros

75'

M. Kébé← L. Kourouma

75'

Iker Garcia← Guillem Trilla

75'

V. Pentelei← Ramon Marimon

83'

Nil Calderó← Kim Min-Su

Girona

L'Hospitalet

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Sergi Mora

59'▲Carles Garrido←▼Jastin García

59'▲Miguel Sánchez←▼D. Camara

75'▲M. Kébé←▼L. Kourouma

75'▲Iker Garcia←▼Guillem Trilla

83'▲Nil Calderó←▼Kim Min-Su

Girona II substitutes

GarridoSánchezKébéGarciaCalderó

Manager: Jaume Delgado

46'▲S. One←▼Lluis Estebe

70'▲Sehou Sarr←▼Álvaro Rivero

70'▲Adán Jesús←▼Pol Ballesteros

75'▲V. Pentelei←▼Ramon Marimon

L'Hospitalet substitutes

OneSarrJesúsPentelei