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L'Hospitalet vs Figueres — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

L'Hospitalet
L'Hospitalet
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Figueres
Figueres
12/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 16Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

L'Hospitalet49%
×Draw25%
Figueres26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

L'Hospitalet
1.55
Figueres
1.06

L'Hospitalet creates 46% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 45 away

creates per match

L'Hospitalet
1.71
Figueres
1.31

allows per match

L'Hospitalet
0.80
Figueres
1.40

finishing

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par
Figueres+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Hospitalet ↓

Figueres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

L'Hospitalet or draw
74%
L'Hospitalet or Figueres
75%
Draw or Figueres
51%

Winning margin

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+
25%
Figueres wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals
79%
L'Hospitalet 2+ goals
46%
L'Hospitalet 3+ goals
20%
Figueres 1+ goals
65%
Figueres 2+ goals
29%
Figueres 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)
65%
Figueres (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Hospitalet at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.80 · 97 matches

Figueres away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Hospitalet attack 1.71 + Figueres defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

Figueres attack 1.31 + L'Hospitalet defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

L'Hospitalet scores more
49%
level
25%
Figueres scores more
26%

L'Hospitalet at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: L'Hospitalet vs Figueres

L'Hospitalet beat Figueres 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat in L'Hospitalet de Llobregat.