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L'Hospitalet vs Europa Fc — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

L'Hospitalet
L'Hospitalet
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Europa Fc
Europa Fc
12/3/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 13Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

L'Hospitalet41%
×Draw27%
Europa Fc32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

L'Hospitalet
1.36
Europa Fc
1.18

L'Hospitalet creates 15% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 42 away

creates per match

L'Hospitalet
1.71
Europa Fc
1.55

allows per match

L'Hospitalet
0.80
Europa Fc
1.02

finishing

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par
Europa Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Hospitalet ↓

Europa Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

L'Hospitalet or draw
68%
L'Hospitalet or Europa Fc
73%
Draw or Europa Fc
59%

Winning margin

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+
19%
Europa Fc wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals
74%
L'Hospitalet 2+ goals
39%
L'Hospitalet 3+ goals
16%
Europa Fc 1+ goals
69%
Europa Fc 2+ goals
33%
Europa Fc 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)
56%
Europa Fc (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Hospitalet at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.80 · 97 matches

Europa Fc away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.02 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Hospitalet attack 1.71 + Europa Fc defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.36

Europa Fc attack 1.55 + L'Hospitalet defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

L'Hospitalet scores more
41%
level
27%
Europa Fc scores more
32%

L'Hospitalet at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: L'Hospitalet vs Europa Fc

Europa Fc beat L'Hospitalet 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat in L'Hospitalet de Llobregat.