L'Escala 0–0 Vilanova: Result & Stats

L'Escala

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vilanova

12/20/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 15Estadi Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

L'Escala45%

×Draw29%

Vilanova26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

L'EscalaExpected goals in this matchVilanova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.90

L'Escala

1.28

Vilanova

0.90

L'Escala creates 42% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.80

creates per match

0.53

1.27

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

L'Escala

1.80

Vilanova

0.53

allows per match

L'Escala

1.27

Vilanova

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

L'Escala+0.00on par

Vilanova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Escala ↓

Vilanova →

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

L'Escala or draw

74%

L'Escala or Vilanova

71%

Draw or Vilanova

55%

Winning margin

L'Escala wins by 2+

21%

Vilanova wins by 2+

Team goals

L'Escala 1+ goals

72%

L'Escala 2+ goals

37%

L'Escala 3+ goals

14%

Vilanova 1+ goals

59%

Vilanova 2+ goals

23%

Vilanova 3+ goals

Draw no bet

L'Escala (draw refunded)

63%

Vilanova (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

L'Escala at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Vilanova away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

L'Escala attack 1.80 + Vilanova defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.28

Vilanova attack 0.53 + L'Escala defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

L'Escala scores more

45%

level

29%

Vilanova scores more

26%

L'Escala at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "L'Escala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff