L'Escala 3–0 San Cristóbal: Result & Stats

L'Escala

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Cristóbal

4/16/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 28Estadi Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

L'Escala48%

×Draw26%

San Cristóbal26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

L'EscalaExpected goals in this matchSan Cristóbal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.02

L'Escala

1.48

San Cristóbal

1.02

L'Escala creates 45% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 108 away

1.80

creates per match

0.78

1.27

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

L'Escala

1.80

San Cristóbal

0.78

allows per match

L'Escala

1.27

San Cristóbal

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

L'Escala+0.00on par

San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Escala ↓

San Cristóbal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

L'Escala or draw

74%

L'Escala or San Cristóbal

74%

Draw or San Cristóbal

52%

Winning margin

L'Escala wins by 2+

24%

San Cristóbal wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

L'Escala 1+ goals

77%

L'Escala 2+ goals

43%

L'Escala 3+ goals

19%

San Cristóbal 1+ goals

64%

San Cristóbal 2+ goals

27%

San Cristóbal 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

L'Escala (draw refunded)

65%

San Cristóbal (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Escala at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

San Cristóbal away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.15 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Escala attack 1.80 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.48

San Cristóbal attack 0.78 + L'Escala defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

L'Escala scores more

48%

level

26%

San Cristóbal scores more

26%

L'Escala at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "L'Escala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff