L'Escala 0–1 Pobla Mafumet: Result & Stats

L'Escala

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pobla Mafumet

Joan Torrents 7' (pen)

3/17/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 25Estadi Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

L'Escala47%

×Draw25%

Pobla Mafumet28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

L'EscalaExpected goals in this matchPobla Mafumet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.17

L'Escala

1.57

Pobla Mafumet

1.17

L'Escala creates 34% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 76 away

1.80

creates per match

1.07

1.27

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

L'Escala

1.80

Pobla Mafumet

1.07

allows per match

L'Escala

1.27

Pobla Mafumet

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

L'Escala+0.00on par

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Escala ↓

Pobla Mafumet →

0–06%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

L'Escala or draw

72%

L'Escala or Pobla Mafumet

75%

Draw or Pobla Mafumet

53%

Winning margin

L'Escala wins by 2+

24%

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

L'Escala 1+ goals

79%

L'Escala 2+ goals

46%

L'Escala 3+ goals

21%

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

69%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

33%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

L'Escala (draw refunded)

62%

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

L'Escala at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

L'Escala attack 1.80 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.57

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + L'Escala defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

L'Escala scores more

47%

level

25%

Pobla Mafumet scores more

28%

L'Escala at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "L'Escala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

P. Calvete

Joan TorrentsPenalty

21'

P. Valencia← Pol Bastidas

46'

Josu Currais← Iker Garcia

46'

Jordi Bas← David Grifell

66'

F. Schug← B. Hallebeek

66'

Teo Pozo← Juan Barragán

71'

Maha← Iván Amoedo

71'

Danilo Luís← Joan Torrents

71'

Guillem Bolado← Guzmán

82'

L. Igbineweka← Sergi Quirós

86'

Roger Fortuny← Xumetra

L'Escala

Pobla

▼

▼

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⚽

▼

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Manager: Aday

21'▲P. Valencia←▼Pol Bastidas

46'▲Josu Currais←▼Iker Garcia

46'▲Jordi Bas←▼David Grifell

71'▲Maha←▼Iván Amoedo

86'▲Roger Fortuny←▼Xumetra

L'Escala substitutes

ValenciaCurraisBasMahaFortuny

Manager: Adolfo Baines

66'▲F. Schug←▼B. Hallebeek

66'▲Teo Pozo←▼Juan Barragán

71'▲Danilo Luís←▼Joan Torrents

71'▲Guillem Bolado←▼Guzmán

82'▲L. Igbineweka←▼Sergi Quirós

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

SchugPozoLuísBoladoIgbineweka