L'Escala 3–3 Cornellà: Result & Stats

L'Escala

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 0

Cornellà

A. Exposito 29'

Y. Zayzoun 27'

H. Ceesay 24'

S. Guzman 82'

S. Golubovic 73', 60'

11/8/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 10Estadi Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

L'Escala44%

×Draw26%

Cornellà30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

L'EscalaExpected goals in this matchCornellà

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.19

L'Escala

1.48

Cornellà

1.19

L'Escala creates 24% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 18 away

1.80

creates per match

1.11

1.27

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

L'Escala

1.80

Cornellà

1.11

allows per match

L'Escala

1.27

Cornellà

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

L'Escala+0.00on par

Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Escala ↓

Cornellà →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

L'Escala or draw

70%

L'Escala or Cornellà

74%

Draw or Cornellà

56%

Winning margin

L'Escala wins by 2+

21%

Cornellà wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

L'Escala 1+ goals

77%

L'Escala 2+ goals

43%

L'Escala 3+ goals

19%

Cornellà 1+ goals

70%

Cornellà 2+ goals

33%

Cornellà 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

L'Escala (draw refunded)

59%

Cornellà (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

L'Escala at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Cornellà away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

L'Escala attack 1.80 + Cornellà defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cornellà attack 1.11 + L'Escala defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

L'Escala scores more

44%

level

26%

Cornellà scores more

30%

L'Escala at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "L'Escala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

27'

29'

60'

73'

82'

L'Escala

Cornellà

Manager: Raul Paje

Manager: Lopo