L'Escala 2–1 Badalona II: Result & Stats

L'Escala

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Badalona II

2/9/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 21Estadi Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

L'Escala45%

×Draw25%

Badalona II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

L'EscalaExpected goals in this matchBadalona II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.20

L'Escala

1.54

Badalona II

1.20

L'Escala creates 28% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 49 away

1.80

creates per match

1.12

1.27

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

L'Escala

1.80

Badalona II

1.12

allows per match

L'Escala

1.27

Badalona II

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

L'Escala+0.00on par

Badalona II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Escala ↓

Badalona II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

L'Escala or draw

70%

L'Escala or Badalona II

75%

Draw or Badalona II

55%

Winning margin

L'Escala wins by 2+

23%

Badalona II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

L'Escala 1+ goals

79%

L'Escala 2+ goals

45%

L'Escala 3+ goals

20%

Badalona II 1+ goals

70%

Badalona II 2+ goals

34%

Badalona II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

L'Escala (draw refunded)

60%

Badalona II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Escala at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Badalona II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Escala attack 1.80 + Badalona II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Badalona II attack 1.12 + L'Escala defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

L'Escala scores more

45%

level

25%

Badalona II scores more

30%

L'Escala at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "L'Escala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff