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L'Entregu vs Vallobín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

L'Entregu
L'Entregu
CANC
00:00
Vallobín
Vallobín
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Estadio Nuevo Nalón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

L'Entregu56%
×Draw25%
Vallobín19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

L'Entregu
1.62
Vallobín
0.83

L'Entregu creates 95% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 28 away

creates per match

L'Entregu
1.37
Vallobín
0.68

allows per match

L'Entregu
0.99
Vallobín
1.86

finishing

L'Entregu+0.00on par
Vallobín+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Entregu ↓

Vallobín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

L'Entregu or draw
81%
L'Entregu or Vallobín
75%
Draw or Vallobín
44%

Winning margin

L'Entregu wins by 2+
30%
Vallobín wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

L'Entregu 1+ goals
80%
L'Entregu 2+ goals
48%
L'Entregu 3+ goals
22%
Vallobín 1+ goals
56%
Vallobín 2+ goals
20%
Vallobín 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

L'Entregu (draw refunded)
75%
Vallobín (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Entregu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.99 · 110 matches

Vallobín away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Entregu attack 1.37 + Vallobín defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.62

Vallobín attack 0.68 + L'Entregu defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

L'Entregu scores more
56%
level
25%
Vallobín scores more
19%

L'Entregu at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "L'Entregu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

L'Entregu vs Vallobín — Match Preview

L'Entregu face Vallobín on March 15, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

L'Entregu host Vallobín at Estadio Nuevo Nalón.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.