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L'Entregu vs Tuilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

L'Entregu
L'Entregu
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tuilla
Tuilla
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Estadio Nuevo Nalón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

L'Entregu45%
×Draw27%
Tuilla29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

L'Entregu
1.41
Tuilla
1.08

L'Entregu creates 31% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

creates per match

L'Entregu
1.37
Tuilla
1.17

allows per match

L'Entregu
0.99
Tuilla
1.45

finishing

L'Entregu+0.00on par
Tuilla+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Entregu ↓

Tuilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

L'Entregu or draw
71%
L'Entregu or Tuilla
73%
Draw or Tuilla
55%

Winning margin

L'Entregu wins by 2+
21%
Tuilla wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

L'Entregu 1+ goals
76%
L'Entregu 2+ goals
41%
L'Entregu 3+ goals
17%
Tuilla 1+ goals
66%
Tuilla 2+ goals
29%
Tuilla 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

L'Entregu (draw refunded)
61%
Tuilla (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Entregu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.99 · 110 matches

Tuilla away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Entregu attack 1.37 + Tuilla defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Tuilla attack 1.17 + L'Entregu defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

L'Entregu scores more
45%
level
27%
Tuilla scores more
29%

L'Entregu at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "L'Entregu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: L'Entregu vs Tuilla

Tuilla beat L'Entregu 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Nalón in El Entrego.