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L'Entregu vs Navarro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

L'Entregu
L'Entregu
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Navarro
Navarro
2/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Estadio Nuevo Nalón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

L'Entregu50%
×Draw26%
Navarro24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

L'Entregu
1.50
Navarro
0.94

L'Entregu creates 60% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 63 away

creates per match

L'Entregu
1.37
Navarro
0.89

allows per match

L'Entregu
0.99
Navarro
1.63

finishing

L'Entregu+0.00on par
Navarro+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Entregu ↓

Navarro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

L'Entregu or draw
76%
L'Entregu or Navarro
74%
Draw or Navarro
50%

Winning margin

L'Entregu wins by 2+
25%
Navarro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

L'Entregu 1+ goals
78%
L'Entregu 2+ goals
44%
L'Entregu 3+ goals
19%
Navarro 1+ goals
61%
Navarro 2+ goals
24%
Navarro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

L'Entregu (draw refunded)
68%
Navarro (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Entregu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.99 · 110 matches

Navarro away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.63 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Entregu attack 1.37 + Navarro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Navarro attack 0.89 + L'Entregu defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

L'Entregu scores more
50%
level
26%
Navarro scores more
24%

L'Entregu at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "L'Entregu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: L'Entregu vs Navarro

L'Entregu and Navarro drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Nalón in El Entrego.