L'Entregu 2–0 Lenense: Result & Stats

L'Entregu

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Lenense

Carlos Mundaka 12'

Óscar Gago 4'

1/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Estadio Nuevo Nalón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

L'Entregu53%

×Draw26%

Lenense22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

L'EntreguExpected goals in this matchLenense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.88

L'Entregu

1.54

Lenense

0.88

L'Entregu creates 75% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 96 away

1.37

creates per match

0.76

0.99

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

L'Entregu

1.37

Lenense

0.76

allows per match

L'Entregu

0.99

Lenense

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

L'Entregu+0.00on par

Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Entregu ↓

Lenense →

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

L'Entregu or draw

78%

L'Entregu or Lenense

74%

Draw or Lenense

47%

Winning margin

L'Entregu wins by 2+

27%

Lenense wins by 2+

Team goals

L'Entregu 1+ goals

79%

L'Entregu 2+ goals

45%

L'Entregu 3+ goals

20%

Lenense 1+ goals

59%

Lenense 2+ goals

22%

Lenense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

L'Entregu (draw refunded)

71%

Lenense (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

L'Entregu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.99 · 110 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

L'Entregu attack 1.37 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Lenense attack 0.76 + L'Entregu defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

L'Entregu scores more

53%

level

26%

Lenense scores more

22%

L'Entregu at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "L'Entregu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Óscar Gago

12'

Carlos Mundaka

45'

Alberto Arias← Óscar Gago

46'

Pablo Coutado← Berto Fernández

46'

Dani Pérez← Víctor Fernández

46'

Pablo López← Lucas Rodríguez

66'

Manuel Casariego← Carlos Mundaka

73'

Alvaro Sánchez← Monasterio

83'

Ignacio Fernández← J. Ospina

L'Entregu

Lenense

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Mundaka

Tejón

González

⚽

▼

Gago

Manager: Adrián González

45'▲Alberto Arias←▼Óscar Gago

66'▲Manuel Casariego←▼Carlos Mundaka

83'▲Ignacio Fernández←▼J. Ospina

L'Entregu substitutes

AriasCasariegoFernández

Manager: Héctor Suárez

46'▲Pablo Coutado←▼Berto Fernández

46'▲Dani Pérez←▼Víctor Fernández

46'▲Pablo López←▼Lucas Rodríguez

73'▲Alvaro Sánchez←▼Monasterio

Lenense substitutes

CoutadoPérezLópezSánchez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: L'Entregu 2–0 Lenense

L'Entregu beat Lenense 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 27, 2024.

Goals: Óscar Gago (4'), Carlos Mundaka (12').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Nalón in El Entrego.

L'Entregu vs Lenense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: L'Entregu 2–0 Lenense