Kyzyl-Zhar 0–1 Kairat Almaty: Result & Stats

Kyzyl-Zhar

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kairat Almaty

8/17/2024

Premier League · Round 17Stadion Jastar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Kyzyl-Zhar34%

×Draw27%

Kairat Almaty39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kyzyl-ZharExpected goals in this matchKairat Almaty

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.31

Kyzyl-Zhar

1.20

Kairat Almaty

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 94 away

1.33

creates per match

1.54

1.09

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Kyzyl-Zhar

1.33

Kairat Almaty

1.54

allows per match

Kyzyl-Zhar

1.09

Kairat Almaty

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyzyl-Zhar+0.00on par

Kairat Almaty+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyzyl-Zhar ↓

Kairat Almaty →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kyzyl-Zhar or draw

61%

Kyzyl-Zhar or Kairat Almaty

73%

Draw or Kairat Almaty

66%

Winning margin

Kyzyl-Zhar wins by 2+

14%

Kairat Almaty wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kyzyl-Zhar 1+ goals

70%

Kyzyl-Zhar 2+ goals

34%

Kyzyl-Zhar 3+ goals

12%

Kairat Almaty 1+ goals

73%

Kairat Almaty 2+ goals

38%

Kairat Almaty 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kyzyl-Zhar (draw refunded)

46%

Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyzyl-Zhar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.09 · 78 matches

Kairat Almaty away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.07 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyzyl-Zhar attack 1.33 + Kairat Almaty defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Kairat Almaty attack 1.54 + Kyzyl-Zhar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kyzyl-Zhar scores more

34%

level

27%

Kairat Almaty scores more

39%

Kairat Almaty at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kairat Almaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff