Kyustendil 2–0 Vitosha Bistritsa: Result & Stats

Kyustendil

FT

2 – 0

Vitosha Bistritsa

3/15/2025

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 24Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Kyustendil53%

×Draw25%

Vitosha Bistritsa22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KyustendilExpected goals in this matchVitosha Bistritsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.97

Kyustendil

1.64

Vitosha Bistritsa

0.97

Kyustendil creates 69% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 69 away

2.09

creates per match

1.13

0.81

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Kyustendil

2.09

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.13

allows per match

Kyustendil

0.81

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyustendil+0.00on par

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyustendil ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kyustendil or draw

78%

Kyustendil or Vitosha Bistritsa

75%

Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa

47%

Winning margin

Kyustendil wins by 2+

28%

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kyustendil 1+ goals

81%

Kyustendil 2+ goals

49%

Kyustendil 3+ goals

23%

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals

62%

Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals

25%

Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kyustendil (draw refunded)

70%

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyustendil at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.81 · 112 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyustendil attack 2.09 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.64

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.13 + Kyustendil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kyustendil scores more

53%

level

25%

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more

22%

Kyustendil at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff