Kyustendil 3–0 Velbazhd: Result & Stats

Kyustendil

FT

3 – 0

Velbazhd

10/24/2020

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 12Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kyustendil76%

×Draw15%

Velbazhd8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KyustendilExpected goals in this matchVelbazhd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

0.66

Kyustendil

2.44

Velbazhd

0.66

Kyustendil creates 270% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 34 away

2.09

creates per match

0.50

0.81

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Kyustendil

2.09

Velbazhd

0.50

allows per match

Kyustendil

0.81

Velbazhd

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyustendil+0.00on par

Velbazhd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyustendil ↓

Velbazhd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Kyustendil or draw

92%

Kyustendil or Velbazhd

85%

Draw or Velbazhd

24%

Winning margin

Kyustendil wins by 2+

53%

Velbazhd wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Kyustendil 1+ goals

91%

Kyustendil 2+ goals

70%

Kyustendil 3+ goals

43%

Velbazhd 1+ goals

48%

Velbazhd 2+ goals

14%

Velbazhd 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Kyustendil (draw refunded)

90%

Velbazhd (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyustendil at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.81 · 112 matches

Velbazhd away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyustendil attack 2.09 + Velbazhd defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.44

Velbazhd attack 0.50 + Kyustendil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Kyustendil scores more

76%

level

15%

Velbazhd scores more

8%

Kyustendil at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff