Kyustendil 0–2 Slivnishki geroy: Result & Stats

Kyustendil

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Slivnishki geroy

10/24/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 15Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Kyustendil57%

×Draw23%

Slivnishki geroy19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KyustendilExpected goals in this matchSlivnishki geroy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.92

Kyustendil

1.77

Slivnishki geroy

0.92

Kyustendil creates 92% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 130 away

2.09

creates per match

1.02

0.81

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Kyustendil

2.09

Slivnishki geroy

1.02

allows per match

Kyustendil

0.81

Slivnishki geroy

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyustendil+0.00on par

Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyustendil ↓

Slivnishki geroy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kyustendil or draw

81%

Kyustendil or Slivnishki geroy

77%

Draw or Slivnishki geroy

43%

Winning margin

Kyustendil wins by 2+

32%

Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kyustendil 1+ goals

83%

Kyustendil 2+ goals

53%

Kyustendil 3+ goals

26%

Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals

60%

Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals

23%

Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kyustendil (draw refunded)

75%

Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyustendil at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.81 · 112 matches

Slivnishki geroy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyustendil attack 2.09 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.77

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.02 + Kyustendil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kyustendil scores more

57%

level

23%

Slivnishki geroy scores more

19%

Kyustendil at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff