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Kyustendil vs Perun Kresna — Third League - Southwest 2018

Kyustendil
Kyustendil
CANC
00:00
Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
3/18/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 22Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kyustendil74%
×Draw17%
Perun Kresna10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyustendil
2.33
Perun Kresna
0.70

Kyustendil creates 233% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 26 away

creates per match

Kyustendil
2.09
Perun Kresna
0.58

allows per match

Kyustendil
0.81
Perun Kresna
2.58

finishing

Kyustendil+0.00on par
Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyustendil ↓

Perun Kresna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kyustendil or draw
90%
Kyustendil or Perun Kresna
83%
Draw or Perun Kresna
26%

Winning margin

Kyustendil wins by 2+
50%
Perun Kresna wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kyustendil 1+ goals
90%
Kyustendil 2+ goals
67%
Kyustendil 3+ goals
41%
Perun Kresna 1+ goals
50%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
16%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kyustendil (draw refunded)
89%
Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyustendil at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.81 · 112 matches

Perun Kresna away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyustendil attack 2.09 + Perun Kresna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.33

Perun Kresna attack 0.58 + Kyustendil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Kyustendil scores more
74%
level
17%
Perun Kresna scores more
10%

Kyustendil at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kyustendil host Perun Kresna

March 18, 2020: Kyustendil take on Perun Kresna in Third League - Southwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kyustendil host Perun Kresna at Stadion Osogovo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.