Kyustendil 0–0 Levski Sofia II: Result & Stats

Kyustendil

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Levski Sofia II

6/6/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 38Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Kyustendil61%

×Draw23%

Levski Sofia II16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KyustendilExpected goals in this matchLevski Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.80

Kyustendil

1.79

Levski Sofia II

0.80

Kyustendil creates 124% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 69 away

2.09

creates per match

0.78

0.81

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Kyustendil

2.09

Levski Sofia II

0.78

allows per match

Kyustendil

0.81

Levski Sofia II

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyustendil+0.00on par

Levski Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyustendil ↓

Levski Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kyustendil or draw

84%

Kyustendil or Levski Sofia II

77%

Draw or Levski Sofia II

39%

Winning margin

Kyustendil wins by 2+

35%

Levski Sofia II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kyustendil 1+ goals

83%

Kyustendil 2+ goals

53%

Kyustendil 3+ goals

26%

Levski Sofia II 1+ goals

55%

Levski Sofia II 2+ goals

19%

Levski Sofia II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kyustendil (draw refunded)

79%

Levski Sofia II (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyustendil at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.81 · 112 matches

Levski Sofia II away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.49 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyustendil attack 2.09 + Levski Sofia II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.79

Levski Sofia II attack 0.78 + Kyustendil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kyustendil scores more

61%

level

23%

Levski Sofia II scores more

16%

Kyustendil at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff