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Kyustendil vs Levski Chepintsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Kyustendil
Kyustendil
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
5/7/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 33Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Kyustendil82%
×Draw12%
Levski Chepintsi6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyustendil
2.93
Levski Chepintsi
0.71

Kyustendil creates 313% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 36 away

creates per match

Kyustendil
2.09
Levski Chepintsi
0.61

allows per match

Kyustendil
0.81
Levski Chepintsi
3.78

finishing

Kyustendil+0.00on par
Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyustendil ↓

Levski Chepintsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kyustendil or draw
94%
Kyustendil or Levski Chepintsi
88%
Draw or Levski Chepintsi
18%

Winning margin

Kyustendil wins by 2+
62%
Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kyustendil 1+ goals
94%
Kyustendil 2+ goals
78%
Kyustendil 3+ goals
55%
Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
51%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
16%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kyustendil (draw refunded)
93%
Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyustendil at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.81 · 112 matches

Levski Chepintsi away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.78 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyustendil attack 2.09 + Levski Chepintsi defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.93

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.61 + Kyustendil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Kyustendil scores more
82%
level
12%
Levski Chepintsi scores more
6%

Kyustendil at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyustendil vs Levski Chepintsi

Kyustendil beat Levski Chepintsi 4-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo in Kyustendil.