Kyustendil 0–2 Kostinbrod: Result & Stats

Kyustendil

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kostinbrod

10/11/2025

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 12Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Kyustendil58%

×Draw22%

Kostinbrod19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KyustendilExpected goals in this matchKostinbrod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.96

Kyustendil

1.86

Kostinbrod

0.96

Kyustendil creates 94% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 70 away

2.09

creates per match

1.10

0.81

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Kyustendil

2.09

Kostinbrod

1.10

allows per match

Kyustendil

0.81

Kostinbrod

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyustendil+0.00on par

Kostinbrod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyustendil ↓

Kostinbrod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kyustendil or draw

81%

Kyustendil or Kostinbrod

78%

Draw or Kostinbrod

42%

Winning margin

Kyustendil wins by 2+

34%

Kostinbrod wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kyustendil 1+ goals

84%

Kyustendil 2+ goals

55%

Kyustendil 3+ goals

28%

Kostinbrod 1+ goals

62%

Kostinbrod 2+ goals

25%

Kostinbrod 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kyustendil (draw refunded)

75%

Kostinbrod (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyustendil at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.81 · 112 matches

Kostinbrod away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.64 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyustendil attack 2.09 + Kostinbrod defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.86

Kostinbrod attack 1.10 + Kyustendil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kyustendil scores more

58%

level

22%

Kostinbrod scores more

19%

Kyustendil at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff