Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kyustendil vs Granit Vladaya — Third League - Southwest 2018

Kyustendil
Kyustendil
FT
1 – 1
Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
9/17/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 7Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Kyustendil72%
×Draw17%
Granit Vladaya11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyustendil
2.36
Granit Vladaya
0.78

Kyustendil creates 203% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 70 away

creates per match

Kyustendil
2.09
Granit Vladaya
0.74

allows per match

Kyustendil
0.81
Granit Vladaya
2.63

finishing

Kyustendil+0.00on par
Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyustendil ↓

Granit Vladaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kyustendil or draw
89%
Kyustendil or Granit Vladaya
83%
Draw or Granit Vladaya
28%

Winning margin

Kyustendil wins by 2+
49%
Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kyustendil 1+ goals
90%
Kyustendil 2+ goals
68%
Kyustendil 3+ goals
41%
Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
54%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
18%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kyustendil (draw refunded)
87%
Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyustendil at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.81 · 112 matches

Granit Vladaya away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyustendil attack 2.09 + Granit Vladaya defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.36

Granit Vladaya attack 0.74 + Kyustendil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Kyustendil scores more
72%
level
17%
Granit Vladaya scores more
11%

Kyustendil at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kyustendil 1 – 1 Granit Vladaya

Kyustendil and Granit Vladaya drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo in Kyustendil.