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Kyustendil vs FK Minyor Pernik — Third League - Southwest 2018

Kyustendil
Kyustendil
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
8/26/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 5Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kyustendil45%
×Draw26%
FK Minyor Pernik29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyustendil
1.49
FK Minyor Pernik
1.15

Kyustendil creates 30% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kyustendil
2.09
FK Minyor Pernik
1.49

allows per match

Kyustendil
0.81
FK Minyor Pernik
0.89

finishing

Kyustendil+0.00on par
FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyustendil ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kyustendil or draw
71%
Kyustendil or FK Minyor Pernik
74%
Draw or FK Minyor Pernik
55%

Winning margin

Kyustendil wins by 2+
22%
FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kyustendil 1+ goals
77%
Kyustendil 2+ goals
44%
Kyustendil 3+ goals
19%
FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
68%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
32%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kyustendil (draw refunded)
61%
FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyustendil at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.81 · 112 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyustendil attack 2.09 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.49

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.49 + Kyustendil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kyustendil scores more
45%
level
26%
FK Minyor Pernik scores more
29%

Kyustendil at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Kyustendil 2–0 FK Minyor Pernik

Kyustendil beat FK Minyor Pernik 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo in Kyustendil.