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Kyustendil vs CSKA 1948 Sofia III — Third League - Southwest 2018

Kyustendil
Kyustendil
FT
5 – 2
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
3/29/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 26Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Kyustendil59%
×Draw22%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyustendil
1.94
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.01

Kyustendil creates 92% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 52 away

creates per match

Kyustendil
2.09
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.21

allows per match

Kyustendil
0.81
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.79

finishing

Kyustendil+0.00on par
CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyustendil ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kyustendil or draw
81%
Kyustendil or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
78%
Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
41%

Winning margin

Kyustendil wins by 2+
35%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kyustendil 1+ goals
86%
Kyustendil 2+ goals
58%
Kyustendil 3+ goals
30%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
64%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
27%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kyustendil (draw refunded)
75%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyustendil at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.81 · 112 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyustendil attack 2.09 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.94

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.21 + Kyustendil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kyustendil scores more
59%
level
22%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
19%

Kyustendil at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyustendil vs CSKA 1948 Sofia III

Kyustendil beat CSKA 1948 Sofia III 5-2 in Third League - Southwest on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo in Kyustendil.