Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kyustendil vs Chavdar Etropole — Third League - Southwest 2018

Kyustendil
Kyustendil
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
5/18/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 35Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Kyustendil50%
×Draw24%
Chavdar Etropole26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyustendil
1.71
Chavdar Etropole
1.18

Kyustendil creates 45% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 87 away

creates per match

Kyustendil
2.09
Chavdar Etropole
1.55

allows per match

Kyustendil
0.81
Chavdar Etropole
1.34

finishing

Kyustendil+0.00on par
Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyustendil ↓

Chavdar Etropole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kyustendil or draw
74%
Kyustendil or Chavdar Etropole
76%
Draw or Chavdar Etropole
50%

Winning margin

Kyustendil wins by 2+
27%
Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kyustendil 1+ goals
82%
Kyustendil 2+ goals
51%
Kyustendil 3+ goals
24%
Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
69%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
33%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kyustendil (draw refunded)
65%
Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyustendil at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.81 · 112 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyustendil attack 2.09 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.71

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Kyustendil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kyustendil scores more
50%
level
24%
Chavdar Etropole scores more
26%

Kyustendil at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyustendil vs Chavdar Etropole

Chavdar Etropole beat Kyustendil 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on May 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo in Kyustendil.