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Kyrgyzstan vs South Korea — Asian Cup 2019

Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
South Korea
South Korea
Kim Min-Jae 41'
1/11/2019Asian CupAsian Cup · Group Stage - 2Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kyrgyzstan37%
×Draw28%
South Korea35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyrgyzstan
1.17
South Korea
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kyrgyzstan
1.00
South Korea
1.00

allows per match

Kyrgyzstan
1.25
South Korea
1.33

finishing

Kyrgyzstan+0.00on par
South Korea+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyrgyzstan ↓

South Korea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kyrgyzstan or draw
65%
Kyrgyzstan or South Korea
72%
Draw or South Korea
63%

Winning margin

Kyrgyzstan wins by 2+
15%
South Korea wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kyrgyzstan 1+ goals
69%
Kyrgyzstan 2+ goals
33%
Kyrgyzstan 3+ goals
11%
South Korea 1+ goals
68%
South Korea 2+ goals
31%
South Korea 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kyrgyzstan (draw refunded)
51%
South Korea (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyrgyzstan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

South Korea away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyrgyzstan attack 1.00 + South Korea defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

South Korea attack 1.00 + Kyrgyzstan defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kyrgyzstan scores more
37%
level
28%
South Korea scores more
35%

Kyrgyzstan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kyrgyzstan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
Kim Min-Jae↳ Hong Chul
63'
Ju Se-Jong← Koo Ja-Cheol
69'
V. Lux← A. Sydykov
77'
B. Duyshobekov← E. Bernhardt
80'
Yong Lee
81'
T. Rustamov← A. Israilov
82'
Ji Dong-Won← Hwang Ui-jo
83'
Tursunali Rustamov

Possession

37%Kyrgyzstan

Shots

7Kyrgyzstan

Statistics

KyrgyzstanSouth
Overview
37%Possession63%
7Total Shots15
5Corners10
10Fouls8
Shots
7Total Shots15
3On Target6
4Off Target9
Passing
37%Possession63%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
0Offsides4

Asian Cup: Kyrgyzstan 0–1 South Korea

South Korea beat Kyrgyzstan 1-0 in Asian Cup on January 11, 2019.

Goals: Kim Min-Jae (41').

South Korea controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium in Al Ain.