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Kyrgyzstan vs Saudi Arabia — Asian Cup 2019

Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
1/21/2024Asian CupAsian Cup · Group Stage - 2Ahmad bin Ali Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kyrgyzstan19%
×Draw29%
Saudi Arabia51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyrgyzstan
0.67
Saudi Arabia
1.29

Saudi Arabia creates 93% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kyrgyzstan
1.00
Saudi Arabia
1.33

allows per match

Kyrgyzstan
1.25
Saudi Arabia
0.33

finishing

Kyrgyzstan+0.00on par
Saudi Arabia+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyrgyzstan ↓

Saudi Arabia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–118%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kyrgyzstan or draw
49%
Kyrgyzstan or Saudi Arabia
71%
Draw or Saudi Arabia
81%

Winning margin

Kyrgyzstan wins by 2+
5%
Saudi Arabia wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kyrgyzstan 1+ goals
49%
Kyrgyzstan 2+ goals
15%
Kyrgyzstan 3+ goals
3%
Saudi Arabia 1+ goals
72%
Saudi Arabia 2+ goals
37%
Saudi Arabia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kyrgyzstan (draw refunded)
27%
Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyrgyzstan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Saudi Arabia away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyrgyzstan attack 1.00 + Saudi Arabia defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Saudi Arabia attack 1.33 + Kyrgyzstan defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kyrgyzstan scores more
19%
level
29%
Saudi Arabia scores more
51%

Saudi Arabia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Saudi Arabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyrgyzstan vs Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia beat Kyrgyzstan 2-0 in Asian Cup on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Ahmad bin Ali Stadium in Al-Rayyan.