Kyrgyzstan 5–1 Myanmar: Result & Stats

Kyrgyzstan

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Myanmar

B. Sagynbaev 87'

V. Lux 74'

A. Zemlianukhin 63', 5'

I. Shamshiev 2'

Kyaw Ko Ko 83'

3/22/2018

Asian Cup - Qualification · Group Stage - 3Stadion im. Dolena Omurzakova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kyrgyzstan62%

×Draw19%

Myanmar18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KyrgyzstanExpected goals in this matchMyanmar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.16

Kyrgyzstan

2.29

Myanmar

1.16

Kyrgyzstan creates 97% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

2.00

creates per match

1.71

0.60

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Kyrgyzstan

2.00

Myanmar

1.71

allows per match

Kyrgyzstan

0.60

Myanmar

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyrgyzstan+0.00on par

Myanmar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyrgyzstan ↓

Myanmar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Kyrgyzstan or draw

82%

Kyrgyzstan or Myanmar

81%

Draw or Myanmar

38%

Winning margin

Kyrgyzstan wins by 2+

40%

Myanmar wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kyrgyzstan 1+ goals

90%

Kyrgyzstan 2+ goals

66%

Kyrgyzstan 3+ goals

40%

Myanmar 1+ goals

69%

Myanmar 2+ goals

32%

Myanmar 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kyrgyzstan (draw refunded)

77%

Myanmar (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyrgyzstan at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Myanmar away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyrgyzstan attack 2.00 + Myanmar defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.29

Myanmar attack 1.71 + Kyrgyzstan defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kyrgyzstan scores more

62%

level

19%

Myanmar scores more

18%

Kyrgyzstan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kyrgyzstan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

I. Shamshiev

5'

A. Zemlianukhin

46'

Kyaw Ko Ko← Aee Soe

59'

F. Musabekov← A. Sydykov

60'

Hlaing Bo Bo← Yan Aung Kyaw

63'

A. Zemlianukhin

69'

V. Lux← M. Murzaev

70'

Htike Htike Aung← David Htan

74'

V. Lux

78'

B. Sagynbaev← A. Zemlianukhin

83'

Kyaw Ko Ko

87'

B. Sagynbaev

Kyrgyzstan

Myanmar

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: A. Krestinin

59'▲F. Musabekov←▼A. Sydykov

69'▲V. Lux←▼M. Murzaev

78'▲B. Sagynbaev←▼A. Zemlianukhin

Kyrgyzstan substitutes

MusabekovLuxSagynbaevAkimalievManybekovAkhmedovSalievTagoeMatiashSidorenkoKozubaev

Manager: G. Zeise

46'▲Kyaw Ko Ko←▼Aee Soe

60'▲Hlaing Bo Bo←▼Yan Aung Kyaw

70'▲Htike Htike Aung←▼David Htan

Myanmar substitutes

KoBoAungThuLwinLinSithuHtutTunNaingAungOo

Asian Cup - Qualification: Kyrgyzstan 5–1 Myanmar

Kyrgyzstan beat Myanmar 5-1 in Asian Cup - Qualification on March 22, 2018.

Goals: I. Shamshiev (2'), A. Zemlianukhin (5', 63'), V. Lux (74'), Kyaw Ko Ko (83'), B. Sagynbaev (87').

The match was played at Stadion im. Dolena Omurzakova in Bishkek.

Kyrgyzstan vs Myanmar — Asian Cup - Qualification 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Asian Cup - Qualification: Kyrgyzstan 5–1 Myanmar