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Kyrgyzstan U17 vs Yemen U17 — AFC U17 Asian Cup 2025

Kyrgyzstan U17
Kyrgyzstan U17
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Yemen U17
Yemen U17
11/22/2025AFC U17 Asian CupAFC U17 Asian Cup · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kyrgyzstan U1728%
×Draw23%
Yemen U1748%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyrgyzstan U17
1.31
Yemen U17
1.77

Yemen U17 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kyrgyzstan U17
1.33
Yemen U17
1.86

allows per match

Kyrgyzstan U17
1.67
Yemen U17
1.29

finishing

Kyrgyzstan U17+0.00on par
Yemen U17+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyrgyzstan U17 ↓

Yemen U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kyrgyzstan U17 or draw
52%
Kyrgyzstan U17 or Yemen U17
77%
Draw or Yemen U17
72%

Winning margin

Kyrgyzstan U17 wins by 2+
12%
Yemen U17 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kyrgyzstan U17 1+ goals
73%
Kyrgyzstan U17 2+ goals
38%
Kyrgyzstan U17 3+ goals
14%
Yemen U17 1+ goals
83%
Yemen U17 2+ goals
53%
Yemen U17 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kyrgyzstan U17 (draw refunded)
37%
Yemen U17 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyrgyzstan U17 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Yemen U17 away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyrgyzstan U17 attack 1.33 + Yemen U17 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Yemen U17 attack 1.86 + Kyrgyzstan U17 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kyrgyzstan U17 scores more
28%
level
23%
Yemen U17 scores more
48%

Yemen U17 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Yemen U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC U17 Asian Cup: Kyrgyzstan U17 0–2 Yemen U17

Yemen U17 beat Kyrgyzstan U17 2-0 in AFC U17 Asian Cup on November 22, 2025.