Kyrgyz Republic U23 2–2 Serbia U21: Result & Stats

Kyrgyz Republic U23

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Serbia U21

S. Bokoleev 73'

K. Iskandarbekov 41'

M. Mitrovic 65'

J. Mijatovic 12'

3/26/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalMardan Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kyrgyz Republic U2324%

×Draw23%

Serbia U2153%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kyrgyz Republic U23Expected goals in this matchSerbia U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.77

Kyrgyz Republic U23

1.10

Serbia U21

1.77

Serbia U21 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.40

2.14

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Kyrgyz Republic U23

1.00

Serbia U21

1.40

allows per match

Kyrgyz Republic U23

2.14

Serbia U21

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyrgyz Republic U23+0.00on par

Serbia U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyrgyz Republic U23 ↓

Serbia U21 →

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kyrgyz Republic U23 or draw

47%

Kyrgyz Republic U23 or Serbia U21

77%

Draw or Serbia U21

76%

Winning margin

Kyrgyz Republic U23 wins by 2+

Serbia U21 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Kyrgyz Republic U23 1+ goals

67%

Kyrgyz Republic U23 2+ goals

30%

Kyrgyz Republic U23 3+ goals

10%

Serbia U21 1+ goals

83%

Serbia U21 2+ goals

53%

Serbia U21 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Kyrgyz Republic U23 (draw refunded)

31%

Serbia U21 (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kyrgyz Republic U23 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Serbia U21 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kyrgyz Republic U23 attack 1.00 + Serbia U21 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Serbia U21 attack 1.40 + Kyrgyz Republic U23 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kyrgyz Republic U23 scores more

24%

level

23%

Serbia U21 scores more

53%

Serbia U21 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Serbia U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

41'

65'

73'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff