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Kyrgyz Republic U20 vs Turkmenistan U20 — Friendlies 2018

Kyrgyz Republic U20
Kyrgyz Republic U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Turkmenistan U20
Turkmenistan U20
K. Omurzakov 90'
A. Imerov 66'
V. Orazdurdyyev 90'
5/15/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalTALCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kyrgyz Republic U2043%
×Draw24%
Turkmenistan U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyrgyz Republic U20
1.64
Turkmenistan U20
1.42

Kyrgyz Republic U20 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kyrgyz Republic U20
1.67
Turkmenistan U20
2.00

allows per match

Kyrgyz Republic U20
0.83
Turkmenistan U20
1.60

finishing

Kyrgyz Republic U20+0.00on par
Turkmenistan U20+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyrgyz Republic U20 ↓

Turkmenistan U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kyrgyz Republic U20 or draw
67%
Kyrgyz Republic U20 or Turkmenistan U20
76%
Draw or Turkmenistan U20
57%

Winning margin

Kyrgyz Republic U20 wins by 2+
22%
Turkmenistan U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kyrgyz Republic U20 1+ goals
81%
Kyrgyz Republic U20 2+ goals
49%
Kyrgyz Republic U20 3+ goals
23%
Turkmenistan U20 1+ goals
76%
Turkmenistan U20 2+ goals
41%
Turkmenistan U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kyrgyz Republic U20 (draw refunded)
56%
Turkmenistan U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyrgyz Republic U20 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Turkmenistan U20 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyrgyz Republic U20 attack 1.67 + Turkmenistan U20 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Turkmenistan U20 attack 2.00 + Kyrgyz Republic U20 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kyrgyz Republic U20 scores more
43%
level
24%
Turkmenistan U20 scores more
33%

Kyrgyz Republic U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kyrgyz Republic U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'
A. Imerov
90'
V. Orazdurdyyev
90'
K. Omurzakov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Kyrgyz Republic U20 2–1 Turkmenistan U20

Kyrgyz Republic U20 beat Turkmenistan U20 2-1 in Friendlies on May 15, 2026.

Goals: A. Imerov (66'), V. Orazdurdyyev (90'), K. Omurzakov (90').

The match was played at TALCO Arena in Tursunzoda.