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Kyrgyz Republic U20 vs Jordan U23 — Friendlies 2024

Kyrgyz Republic U20
Kyrgyz Republic U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Jordan U23
Jordan U23
3/27/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kyrgyz Republic U2035%
×Draw27%
Jordan U2338%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyrgyz Republic U20
1.21
Jordan U23
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kyrgyz Republic U20
1.67
Jordan U23
1.75

allows per match

Kyrgyz Republic U20
0.83
Jordan U23
0.75

finishing

Kyrgyz Republic U20+0.00on par
Jordan U23+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyrgyz Republic U20 ↓

Jordan U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kyrgyz Republic U20 or draw
62%
Kyrgyz Republic U20 or Jordan U23
73%
Draw or Jordan U23
65%

Winning margin

Kyrgyz Republic U20 wins by 2+
15%
Jordan U23 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kyrgyz Republic U20 1+ goals
70%
Kyrgyz Republic U20 2+ goals
34%
Kyrgyz Republic U20 3+ goals
12%
Jordan U23 1+ goals
72%
Jordan U23 2+ goals
37%
Jordan U23 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kyrgyz Republic U20 (draw refunded)
47%
Jordan U23 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyrgyz Republic U20 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Jordan U23 away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyrgyz Republic U20 attack 1.67 + Jordan U23 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Jordan U23 attack 1.75 + Kyrgyz Republic U20 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kyrgyz Republic U20 scores more
35%
level
27%
Jordan U23 scores more
38%

Jordan U23 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jordan U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyrgyz Republic U20 vs Jordan U23

Jordan U23 beat Kyrgyz Republic U20 2-1 in Friendlies on March 27, 2026.